Conference Schedule
Goals and Discussion Questions
Abstracts/References
Flagstaff/NAU InformationGOALS AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION IN WORKING GROUPS
NEW - WORKING GROUP QUESTION RESPONSES- NEW
Question #1 - What climate changes are predicted for the southwest?
Question #4 - How will global change affect pinyon-juniper evolution?
Ecological Implications of Current Use of Pinyon-juniper Woodlands (image)
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION IN WORKING GROUPS
We propose to develop these topics in two days of working groups. Wherever possible, working groups should back up statements with key published references so that the whole group obtains both an issue and reference list. Below we list key topics for working groups and a few potential sub-questions that may serve as starting points for discussion. Participants are encouraged to develop alternative sub-questions or suggest new primary questions that might better focus our efforts to study p-j and integrate our studies into ecological theory.
NOTE*****WE HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES BASED ON YOUR WORKING GROUP SELECTIONS. THESE INCLUDE ELIMINATING QUESTION 8 ON EXOTIC AND RARE SPECIES DUE TO LACK OF INTEREST, COLLAPSING QUESTIONS 3 AND 4 TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS DISCUSSING THOSE ISSUES, AND MAKING QUESTION 10 A GENERAL FOCUS OF ALL OF THE WORKING SESSIONS RATHER THAN A SPECIFIC QUESTION. ONLY ONE PERSON SELECTED QUESTION 10 AS A TOP CHOICE, BUT WE FELT THAT IT WAS AN IMPORTANT OVERALL GOAL OF THE WORKSHOP. ********
1st Working Session:
1. What climate changes are predicted for the Southwest?
a). How do the predictions based upon paleoreconstructions differ from climate models?
b). Why do they differ and when is one approach more useful than the other?
c). How important is it to include the biology of species into reconstructions (e.g., how might the impacts of herbivores on tree rings influence reconstructions and/or how might pests and pathogens interact with climate to alter the outcomes)?
2. Other than climate, what other global changes are predicted for the Southwest?
a). How important are land use changes likely to be relative to other global changes? Is land use the only other major challenge to p-j?
b). How will past land use and management practices affect p-j responses to other global changes (chaining, burning, fire suppression)?
c). What is the role of fire in the natural ecology of p-j woodlands? How can fire management practices in p-j change to compensate for global change?
d). Some say that the primary focus of p-j restoration is to remove/reduce p-j so that grasslands can be restored? What is the evidence for pinyon-juniper encroachment into grasslands?
3 (formerly 3 and 4). How does global change affect p-j along an elevational and latitudinal gradient and will these changes differentially affect pinyons vs. junipers?
a). How will the responses of the pinyon-juniper ecosystem to global change affect neighboring ecosystems (i.e., ponderosa pine forests above p-j and grasslands below)?
b). Due to their increased sensitivity, should ecotones become primary study sites for studying global change?
c). How do soil, slope and aspect interact along these gradients to affect p-j?
d). How will pinyons and junipers respond to global change in terms of survival and recruitment and will ecotonal boundaries shift as a result? What is the evidence that junipers are more drought-adapted?
e). Will nurse plant associations with juniper become more important for pinyons with global change or will this facilitative interaction shift towards competition?
f) How will global change affect the relationships between pinyons and junipers and their dispersal agents?
4 (formerly 5). How will global change affect p-j evolution along an elevational gradient?
a). With global change, what are the selection pressures that have the potential to affect p-j evolution?
b). Will climatic warming decrease gene flow between pinyon species? How is hybridization affected by climate change?
c). How does climate change affect pinyon evolution along elevational gradients?
d). Will increases or decreases in pest and pathogen attack with global change affect p-j evolution?
e). Does drought-caused mortality favor drought-adapted genotypes among pinyons and junipers?
2nd Working Session:
6. How will global change affect ecosystem productivity and nutrient cycling of p-j?
a) Do individual species matter?
b) Given that pinyons and junipers form mycorrhizal associations with fungi that vary in the sources of nitrogen they use, what are the potential effects of a shift from a pinyon and juniper-dominated landscape to a juniper-dominated landscape in terms of nitrogen cycling?
c). How will litter decomposition rates vary with changes in the timing of precipitation?
7. How will global change affect the biodiversity of aboveground and belowground communities?
a) What are the combined effects of rising CO2 and warming temperatures likely to be for belowground diversity and function in pinyon-juniper woodlands? How do the combined effects differ from what we expect for the factors acting alone?
b). How will global change affect community structure and biodiversity?
c). With increasing or decreasing stress how will community stability be affected?
8 (formerly 9). How will global change affect dependent community members and potentially alter complex interactions? (e.g., keystone species, mycorrhizal responses, insect pests, pathogens)?
a). Will increases in insect herbivory as a consequence of more frequent droughts result in higher pinyon mortality and a reduction in rodent abundance and diversity?
b). How would greater reliance on monsoonal moisture affect rodent populations and the incidence of Hanta virus?
c). How will associations with important seed dispersing birds be affected?
d). Will global change affect mycorrhizal associations; will the mutualism become tighter or perhaps pathogenic?
Common Issues For All Questions and for the Summary Meeting of all Groups on Wednesday:
a) What are the management implications of these combined issues?
b) How can emerging technologies such as stable isotope analysis, geographical information systems and data mining improve our ability to study p-j?
c) How can an understanding of the pinyon-juniper ecosystem be used as a model system to understand other ecosystems and/or processes? For example…
1. What non-intuitive processes and patterns might arise in the study of p-j? Are there switches in the responses of p-j to major triggers such as climate, keystone species, etc. (An example of this might be how at low stress, herbivory has a positive effect on biodiversity, but at high stress, herbivory has a negative effect on biodiversity).
2. What can the study of other complex systems tell us about pinyon-juniper woodlands?
3). What can the study of p-j tell us about other systems, especially other arid systems?
4). With climate change, will the number and nature of keystone species be altered?